HUBUNGAN KAUSALITAS PERDAGANGAN INTERNASIONAL DAN PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI INDONESIA
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.59827/jie.v3i2.139Keywords:
Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, Perdagangan Internasional, Granger CausalityAbstract
Penelitian ini bertujuan unutk mengetahui hubungan kausalitas antara pertumbuhan ekonomi (GDP) dan perdagangan internasional. Dengan menggunakan analisis Granger Causality untuk melihat arah hubungan antar variabel dependen dan independen. Data penelitian ini menggunakan data time series dari tahun 1981-2023 yang diperoleh dari worldbank. Variabel yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah GDP untuk memproksikan pertumbuhan ekonomi dan ekspor, impor serta net trade untuk memproksikan perdagangan internasional. Hasil uji empiris menggunakan analisis Granger Causality menemukan bahwa 1. Antara GDP dan ekspor memiliki hubungan satu arah, dimana hanya ekspor yang mempengaruhi GDP, sebaliknya GDP tidak mempengaruhi ekspor. 2. Antara GDP dan Impor memiliki hubungan satu arah, dimana hanya impor yang mempengaruhi GDP, sebaliknya GDP tidak mempengaruhi impor. 3. Antara GDP dan Net Trade memiliki hubungan satu arah, dimana hanya GDP yang mempengaruhi Net Trade, sebaliknya Net Trade tidak mempengaruhi GDP.
References
Abendin, S., & Duan, P. (2021). International trade and economic growth in Africa: The role of the digital economy. Cogent Economics & Finance, 9(1), 1911767. https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2021.1911767
Celik, A., Bajja, S., Radoine, H., Chenal, J., & Bouyghrissi, S. (2024). Effects of urbanization and international trade on economic growth, productivity, and employment: Case of selected countries in Africa. Heliyon, 10(13), e33539. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e33539
Ginting, A. M. (2017). ANALISIS PENGARUH EKSPOR TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI INDONESIA. Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan, 11(1), 1–20. https://doi.org/10.30908/bilp.v11i1.185
Goh, S. K., Sam, C. Y., & McNown, R. (2017). Re-examining foreign direct investment, exports, and economic growth in asian economies using a bootstrap ARDL test for cointegration. Journal of Asian Economics, 51, 12–22. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asieco.2017.06.001
Gokmenoglu, K. K., Amin, M. Y., & Taspinar, N. (2015). The Relationship among International Trade, Financial Development and Economic Growth: The Case of Pakistan. Procedia Economics and Finance, 25, 489–496. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2212-5671(15)00761-3
Gujarati, D. N. (2003). Basic econometrics (4th ed). McGraw Hill.
Jumaedi, M., Chaidir, T., & Firmansyah, M. (2023). DETERMINAN YANG MEMPENGARUHI PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI INDONESIA PERIODE 1970-2020. E-Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis Universitas Udayana, 633. https://doi.org/10.24843/EEB.2023.v12.i04.p05
Kónya, L. (2006). Exports and growth: Granger causality analysis on OECD countries with a panel data approach. Economic Modelling, 23(6), 978–992. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2006.04.008
Krugman, P. R., Obstfeld, M., & Melitz, M. J. (2018). International economics: Theory & policy (Eleventh Edition). Pearson.
Makun, K. K. (2018). Imports, remittances, direct foreign investment and economic growth in Republic of the Fiji Islands: An empirical analysis using ARDL approach. Kasetsart Journal of Social Sciences, 39(3), 439–447. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.kjss.2017.07.002
Nguye, N. T. K. (2017a). The Long Run and Short Run Impacts of Foreign Direct Investment and Export on Economic Growth of Vietnam. Asian Economic and Financial Review, 7(5), 519–527. https://doi.org/10.18488/journal.aefr.2017.75.519.527
Nguye, N. T. K. (2017b). The Long Run and Short Run Impacts of Foreign Direct Investment and Export on Economic Growth of Vietnam. Asian Economic and Financial Review, 7(5), 519–527. https://doi.org/10.18488/journal.aefr.2017.75.519.527
NGUYEN, H. H. (2020). Impact of Foreign Direct Investment and International Trade on Economic Growth: Empirical Study in Vietnam. The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 7(3), 323–331. https://doi.org/10.13106/JAFEB.2020.VOL7.NO3.323
Rahman, M. M. (2021). The dynamic nexus of energy consumption, international trade and economic growth in BRICS and ASEAN countries: A panel causality test. Energy, 229, 120679. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2021.120679
Salvatore, D. (2013). International economics (11th ed). John Wiley & Sons.
Sultanuzzaman, M. R., Fan, H., Akash, M., Wang, B., & Shakij, U. S. M. (2018). The role of FDI inflows and export on economic growth in Sri Lanka: An ARDL approach. Cogent Economics & Finance, 6(1), 1518116. https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2018.1518116
Szkorupová, Z. (2014). A Causal Relationship between Foreign Direct Investment, Economic Growth and Export for Slovakia. Procedia Economics and Finance, 15, 123–128. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2212-5671(14)00458-4
Todaro, M. P., & Smith, S. C. (2012). Economic development (11th ed). Addison-Wesley.
Usman, K., & Bashir, U. (2022). The causal nexus between imports and economic growth in China, India and G7 countries: Granger causality analysis in the frequency domain. Heliyon, 8(8), e10180. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2022.e10180
